Nobody at all - in any party - thought Labour could win a majority of 6000 in the Glenrothes by-election.
The candidate Lindsay Roy deserves enormous credit, and even increased Labour's share of the vote. (As Peter Kellner noted before Glasgow East, Labour had suffered a 23 per cent swing to the SNP in a by-election in the honeymoon period of 1999).
Is it the end of the Salmond honeymoon?
I expect the message from Conservative HQ tomorrow will be we're not panicking. But this will add to an increasingly choppy debate - about political strategy, and tax, and how to take on Labour - among the opposition.
Even Guido Fawkes seems to have been left highly discombobulated - I'm sure he'll be back on form in the morning.
UPDATE: Kevin Maguire gives the credit to Sarah Brown.
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